A Meta-analysis of Hypothetical Bias in Stated Preference Valuation

Individuals are widely believed to overstate their economic valuation of a good by a factor of two or three. This paper reports the results of a meta-analysis of hypothetical bias in 28 stated preference valuation studies that report monetary willingness-to-pay and used the same mechanism for eliciting both hypothetical and actual values. The papers generated 83 observations with a median ratio of hypothetical to actual value of only 1.35, and the distribution has severe positive skewness. We find that a choice-based elicitation mechanism is important in reducing bias. We provide some evidence that the use of student subjects may be a source of bias, but since this variable is highly correlated with group experimental settings, firm conclusions cannot be drawn. There is some weak evidence that bias increases when public goods are being valued, and that some calibration methods may be effective at reducing bias. However, results are quite sensitive to model specification, which will remain a problem until a comprehensive theory of hypothetical bias is developed.JEL classifications: C9, H41, Q26, Q28     

Environmental Risk and Averting Behavior: Predictive Validity of Jointly Estimated Revealed and Stated Behavior Data

We conduct predictive validity tests using revealed and stated behavior data from a panel survey of North Carolina coastal households. The application is to hurricane evacuation behavior. Data was initially collected after Hurricane Bonnie led to hurricane evacuations in North Carolina in 1998. Respondents were asked for their behavioral intentions if a hurricane threatened the North Carolina coast during the 1999 hurricane season. Following Hurricanes Dennis and Floyd in 1999, a follow-up survey was conducted to see if respondents behaved as they intended. A jointly estimated revealed and stated behavior model indicates that the hypothetical and real evacuation behavior is based on the same choice process. Using predictions from this model with a hypothetical bias correction, we find that it predicts actual evacuation behavior with a small forecast error. These results suggest that stated behavior data has some degree of predictive validity.     

Time is Money: Improved Valuation of Time and Transportation Costs

The proper valuation of time isimportant for estimating the demand for severaleconomic goods. This paper explores the propervaluation of time when estimating recreationaldemand, where time costs represent asubstantial portion of the ``purchase price'. Toestimate demand, this paper uses a travel costframework to analyze actual behavior (``revealedpreference data') and hypothetical behavior(``stated preference data'), which is induced byhypothetical increases in access fees, traveltime, and travel distance. By comparing theresponses to these three contingencies, theanalysis adjusts and improves the valuation oftime costs. As evidence of this improvement,this analysis demonstrates a great increase inthe consistency between the revealed and stateddata. Similarly, this paper improves thevaluation of transportation-related costs.     

The relationship between wealth or income and time preference is empirical, not apodictic: a critique of Rothbard and Hoppe

There is no doubt that when income or wealth increases, impatience for present goods declines. When time preference for the present falls, interest rates decline as well. But is this phenomenon a necessary condition of human action as Rothbard and Hoppe contend? This is widely thought to be true when a man is on the very verge of death. There is an aphorism according to which “a drowning man will grasp even at the blade of a sword.” In this view, someone who is starving will not postpone the consumption of food for tomorrow that is necessary to keep him alive today. But we disagree. And what is the situation under more ordinary circumstances far removed from starvation? We argue in this paper that, contrary to Rothbard and Hoppe, under these conditions it is a reliable but only a broad empirical generalization that time preferences and interest rates are inversely related to wealth or income, it is not a matter of praxeology.     

Anomalies and Stated Preference Techniques: A Framework for a Discussion of Coping Strategies

This paper introduces a symposium on the issue of how stated preference (SP) research can best cope with ‘anomalies’ (i.e. systematic deviations from the predictions of standard economic theory) in survey responses. It proposes a framework for constructive debate, recognising (i) the legitimate aspirations of SP research, (ii) the relevance of evidence from sources other than best-practice SP, and (iii) the precautionary value of investigating strategies for coping with suspected anomalies, even if questions about the robustness of anomalies have not been finally resolved. Five alternative coping strategies, discussed in more detail in the symposium, are briefly introduced. JEL classifications: D61, D63, Q51     

论特定环境下风险资本退出的另类蹊径--买壳上市的可行性

买壳上市是指非上市公司通过收购某一上市公司一定比例的股份,对其拥有相对控制权,然后再通过"反收购"方式注入自己有关业务及资产,从而实现间接上市的过程.结合我国的特定环境分析买壳上市的条件和应用"成本-效益"分析法分析买壳上市的可行性--由于一级市场尚无条件实施注册制,二级市场的绩差公司比比皆是,专为风险企业资本流动而设的创业板也尚未开辟,众多特殊的条件制约了风险资本的顺利运作和创业企业的长远发展.通过协议受让壳公司的非流通股间接上市一方面为创业企业打通了风险资本顺利退出的通道,另一方面可以优化资本市场稀缺资本的配置并在宏观经济调控中配合国家的产业结构调整,因此,创业企业买壳上市可谓一举多得.相信创业企业的高成长性、风险企业家的创业积极性以及政策面的合理规范引导必将给中国股市带来新的生命力.     

上市公司所得税率变化的敏感性分析

从 2 0 0 2年起除高科技类和西部地区的上市公司以外 ,其它上市公司不再享有所得税地方返还政策 ,而且我国加入WTO以后所得税也面临着改革。对于上市公司来说 ,法定税率 (LTR)变化对其实际税率 (ETRs)有多大的影响就成为政策制定者的一个现实的问题。本文首先对中国上市公司自 1 994— 2 0 0 0年执行的法定所得税税率的现状作一分析 ;然后 ,用 1 86家上市公司的样本进行检验 ,结果发现法定税率变化对实际税率的影响只有法定税率变化的 0 50 2 ,在分组及分年度检验中也得到了类似的结论。     

论融资约束对税收优惠与企业研发投资关系的影响——基于创业板的实证分析

在减税降费政策不断深入的当下,创新驱动发展战略也稳步前行,且以扶持企业创新活动为主,而不同的融资约束程度对税收优惠与研发投资关系的影响存在差异。本文选取了我国创业板公司2014-2019年的相关数据,实证检验税收优惠与企业研发投资的关系,并引入融资约束作为调节变量,检验其对二者关系影响的异质性。结果表明:税收优惠对企业研发投资的激励作用是显著的;而融资约束具有调节作用,无论是从内源融资约束角度还是从债务融资约束角度来看,都显示融资约束程度较小时,这种激励作用更显著。本文充实了税收优惠与研发投资关系研究的相关理论,并且引入融资约束变量,丰富了其调节效应的研究。     

基于公平偏好和过度自信的风险投资契约模型

论文将行为经济学中的非理性心理引入传统的风险契约模型,考虑风险企业家具有公平偏好和过度自信心理情况下的激励机制。研究表明,风险企业家对风险企业产出的最优分享比例会随着公平偏好程度和过度自信程度的增加而增加。风险企业家的创造能力高,最优努力水平随着公平偏好程度的增加而增加;风险企业家的创造能力低,最优努力水平随着公平偏好程度的增加而减小。     

ON THE EMERGENCE OF NON‐PROFIT FIRMS AS ALTERNATIVES TO THE GOVERNMENT*

It is well known that many non‐profit firms coexist with government firms in industries that provide collectively consumed goods and services, such as education, healthcare, social services, and art and culture. This paper explores the specific circumstances under which non‐profit firms can emerge as alternatives to the government. We show that a non‐profit firm emerges only when the residents’ median preference for a collective good is significantly low. This finding implies that, somewhat paradoxically, a non‐profit firm emerges to replace the government and provide a collective good only when the majority of residents consider the good non‐essential.